Dice Rolling A Given Sum
If we have a set of n dice, each of which has k faces numbered 0
through k-1, in how many different ways can these dice give a
particular sum S?
Assuming we regard the individual dice as distinct, there are
obviously k^n different possible results, which could also be
modeled as sequences of throwing a single k-sided die n times,
and keeping track of the order of the results as well as the
cumulative sum. If n and k are small the exact answer can easily
be computed combinatorially for each possible sum, but for large
values of n and k, such as n=k=256, we are better off applying
the central limit theorem and dealing with proportions rather
than absolute numbers.
Taking n=k=256 as an example, we have 256 independent random
variables, each of which has a flat (rectangular) distribution with
a mean of 255/2 and a standard deviation of 255/2sqrt(3). Our
"outcome population" is the sum of these individual populations,
so it has a mean of 256(255/2) = 32640 and a standard deviation
given by sigma^2 = 256 (255/2sqrt(3))^2. Therefore, we have
sigma = 2040/sqrt(3) =~ 1177.79. By the central limit theorem,
it follows that the density of sequences for a given sum x is
exp( -[x-32640]^2 / 2(1177.79)^2 )
d(x) = 256^256 ----------------------------------
(1179.79) sqrt(2 PI)
For an interval of width 1 surrounding x=32768, this gives the
expected number of sequences equal to approximately
0.00034015*256^256
so about 1 out of every 2939.88 sequences would give the sum 32768.
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